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The
original Finnish article by professor Ilkka Hanski was published in
Helsingin Sanomat, January
9, 1999.
Academy
professor Ilkka Hanski is the leader of the
metapopulation biology research group in the university of Helsinki.
TOO
MUCH OF EXTINCTION DEBT
One
thousand species are in danger of disappearing because the old-growth
forests of Southern Finland have been fragmented into pieces too small
to live in.
Man
has changed the Finnish nature by many ways. Old, natural-state forest
is the habitat that has decreased the most.
Every
species from colibacterium to man has its own requirements for a suitable
habitat. These requirements do not just pop out of the blue. Biological
characteristics of species have been developped during millions of
years and they do not change quickly.
Without
its habitat no species can survive. This is a known fact, but there
are many other things in the relation of the species and their habitat
that is misinterpreted. It is widely assumed that if the individuals
manage to move elsewhere when their original habitat disappears, there
will not be any real harm done.
This
conclusion is not correct. Even though individuals might manage to
find another suitable site, there is no reason to presume that the
population of the species will remain stable in the new surroundings.
For
the long-term survival of the species, the total number of the population
is significant, not the destiny of the individuals. A population smaller
and more restricted in the area than ever before has a higher risk
to disappear than a bigger population. There are hardly any exceptions
to this common rule.
Another
mistake is to assume that the future of the species adapted to a certain
habitat is safeguarded, when a small amount of the original habitat
is saved. For example, the assumption of the few protected natural-state
old-growth forests preserving the future of the old-growth forest
species in Southern Finland is based on this misinterpretation.
They
do not. When a significant part of the habitat vanishes, a group of
rare species disappears immediately, because they happened to exist
only in the habitat now gone. These extinctions are called extinction
costs.
The
extinction cost usually covers only a small part of extinctions caused
by the vanishing of the habitat. More important that the immediate
extinction cost is the extinction debt.
Only
one million hectares of old-growth forest left
The
exticntion debt is caused by local populations decreasing too small
to survive when the habitat vanishes or is fragmented. The disappearance
of the remaining populations takes a while. But it will happen.
In
prior to human influence at least half of the Finland's productive
forest land was covered with old-growth forest; the rest represented
younger stages of the natural forest succession.
Today
old natural state (or close) forest only covers about 1,1 million
hectares, i.e. 5,5 % of productive forest land. About 0,4 million
hectares, 2 % of the productive forest land, have been protected.
The
extinction debt can roughly be estimated by the dependance between
the number of species and the land area. Let's presume that in natural
state about one third would be old-growth forests. In Southern Finland
old-growth forests cover only about 0,5 % of productive forest land,
which means an extinction debt of about half of old-growth forest
species. If 10 % of all about 2000 forest dwelling species are old-growth
forest species, the extinction debt is 1000 species.
This
may sound surprisingly high, but the facts proof that the magnitude
is correct. Already one fourth of the threatened forest beetles have
vanished from Southern Finland and even 75 % in the Southern coast.
Additional
1000 forest dwelling species have been evaluated to be endangered.
This number includes only 42 % of Finland's species, since the knowledge
of the rest is inadequate. This means that the number of endangered
forest dwelling species can be estimated over 2000.
Vanished
species will not come back
If
the aim is to prevent the mass extinction of old-growth forest species,
all the remaining somewhat natural-state old-growth forests have to
be left out of commercial utilization. If the old-growth forests are
still logged, the extinction cost has to be paid, and the less old-growth
forest remains, the more extinction debt has to be taken.
Short-time
joy causes not only temporary hangover, but also a permanent injury
since the once vanished species do not come back. Even though the
forests would grow they would become only nature's ghost towns, where
there are no inhabitants behind the standing scenes.
For
the forestry practices, regional politics and implementation of the
protection aims it is problematic that the remaining old-growth forest
is situated mainly in the Northern Finland. During the next couple
of decades in many places in the Northern Finland there is little
else to log except for the old-growth forests.
After
few decades today's middle-aged forests will be ready to be logged
and there will not be such a need to log the old-growth forests. The
solutions that do not destroy the forest nature have to be found now.
In
the Southern and Middle Finland the situation is disconsolate, since
the total area of old-growth forest is catastrophically low, 0,5 %
of the productive forest land. The enlargement of the small old-growth
forest fragments have to start immediately.
Protection
is a profitable investment
If
the remainig old-growth forest are protected, the already hideous
extinction debt will not grow anymore. Saving the old-growth forests
gives us and the future generations time out: species not yet disappeared
can be preserved.
Old-growth
forests operate as havens and expansion centres for thousands of species
that can succeed in lightly managed commercial forests where old trees,
decaying wood and keybiotopes in their natural state are being left.
The aim of the present-day forest policy is to improve such a forest
management and to preserve as much of biodiversity in the commercial
forest as possible. People are willing to even pay for this.
But
even the lightly managed forests are not good enough for the actual
old-growth forest species. The protection of old-growth forests cannot
be compensated by the ecological landscape planning or other changes
in management of commercial forests.
If
a significant amount of old-growth forests in Russian Karelia disappears,
the importance of the Finnish old-growth forests to the species and
the biodiversity of this country is multiplied. There is also a reason
to believe that the small economical value of natural-state forests
in Finland is greater in the future than the amount gotten from destroying
these forests now.
It
is necessary to emphasize the great disproportion of the choices being
made now. The old-growth forests that are not logged today can be
in theory logged tomorrow, but the old-growth forests logged today,
nor their species, will never come back.
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